Earnings Decline–Likely More to Go Before We Are Done
Commentary
Last year I wrote an article discussing that 2022 earnings estimates were too optimistic, given the impending reversal of the economic “sugar rush” of massive liquidity injections. With the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, the phenomenon of high inflation, and slower economic growth in the mix, a continuation of said earnings decline remains highly probable.
We previously noted that earnings estimates were overly optimistic and would need to come down to align with economic realities. That process has now begun. In the last couple of months, estimates for fourth quarter 2023 have dropped by roughly 12 percent. This would be considered normal for an economic slowdown. However, if the economy slips into a recession, a decline of 50 percent in estimates would be in line….