The Coming Mild Recession
Commentary
Debate on recession prospects has three sides. One points to still strong jobs growth and contends that the economy will avoid recession altogether. A second side contends that the jobs numbers are misleading and that a recession is imminent. Yet a third splits the difference, arguing that a recession will wait until 2024.
Forecasting is always a dubious business, especially timing a cyclical turn, but circumstances yield at least two strong probabilities. First, recession, whatever its exact timing, is likely. Already, the effects of high-interest rates and the ill effects of inflation are evident. Second, the recession, when it arrives, should be mild, certainly nothing like the disaster of 2008–09 that still looms large in collective memory….