2023: A Year of Surprises

Commentary

Bank failures, an artificial intelligence-led bull market, persistent inflation, eurozone recession, France engulfed in riots, and perhaps the biggest U.S. presidential corruption scandal ever. Looking back on the first half of 2023, it is hard to believe the extraordinary events and outright surprises of recent months.
Some of the possibilities I forecast in January 2023 have come to pass, including persistent inflation and massive shifts in the geopolitical landscape, but other expectations, such as a recession by the second or third quarter, have been delayed, at least in the United States if not in Europe. I’m not sure they exist, but I would love to meet any unicorns that accurately predicted the surprises of the first half of 2023….