Headline Jobs Is a Blowout, but Fed Likely to Resume Hikes Longer or Higher
Commentary
The January jobs report Establishment Survey showed that the economy added 517,000 new jobs, wildly beyond the consensus estimate of 185,000 jobs. Net revisions for November and Decembber resulted in an additional 71,000 more jobs for the last three months. (It is generally believed that 200,000–250,000 jobs are required to accommodate population growth.) The unemployment rate printed at 3.4 percent.
The January jobs print, as usual, includes a statistical adjustment that is beyond the scope of this article. The methodology of the adjustment can be reviewed here. and the detail for 2023 can be found here. The Household Survey, which is determined differently, showed 265, 962 new jobs. Raw (unadjusted) jobs data showed only 152,844 new jobs. The January jobs adjustment can often cause widely disparate changes in the number of new jobs as well as doubts about the accuracy of the January jobs report….